All Indicators Signal that Trump Will Restart the War Against Iran This Week

Larry C Johnson

mai 5

LIRE DANS L'APP

Late Monday afternoon in Florida, I learned that there was a large movement of KC-135s over the Arabian Peninsula. This movement was consistent with air-refueling operations for US combat aircraft. I also learned that the US was “spinning up,” which is military slang for going hot. I fully expected air strikes to commence inside Iran early Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, Iran hit the UAE’s oil terminal at Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman — a facility that the Emiratis have used to partially circumvent Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. I believe this was Iran’s way of voicing its displeasure with the UAE openly siding with Israel. Worth noting that Israel supplied the UAE with an Iron Dome system that utterly failed to stop the Iranian attack:

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A friend who is a resident of the UAE — someone who is well connected — sent me a note stating that his source in the Emirati government told him that hostilities would commence on Thursday, the 7th. However, I also know that among the leadership of CENTCOM there is not a lot of enthusiasm for initiating new attacks.

Despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, the Strait of Hormuz remains under the full control of Iran and US ships are keeping their distance. The only realistic solution to open the Strait of Hormuz is through negotiations with Iran. The US does not have a viable military option to ensure freedom of navigation because that would require clearing the mines and eliminating Iran’s mini-submarines, underwater drones, surface drones, Boghammer boats (manned fast-boats), Geran drones, coastal defense cruise missiles and short-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. All must be eliminated and controlled in order to ensure tankers and cargo ships can safely transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Barring Trump having a change of heart or an unexpected breakthrough on the diplomatic front, I believe that Trump will order a new and intense round of air strikes on key Iranian infrastructure. If that happens, Iran will waste not time in launching massive retaliatory strikes on the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and locations hosting US military forces and equipment.

Iran will enter this next round of fighting with the full backing of Russia and China. China did something highly unusual with respect to US sanctions. The Chinese government announced it would NOT cooperate with U.S. sanctions. China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) issued a Blocking Order on May 2/3, invoking its 2021 Rules on Counteracting Unjustified Extra-territorial Application of Foreign Legislation (Blocking Rules) for the first time in a prohibition order. It explicitly bans Chinese entities from recognizing, enforcing, or complying with US sanctions on five Chinese companies (including major refiners like Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refining Co. and several Shandong “teapot” refineries) accused of buying Iranian oil. The order aims to “safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests” and protect Chinese firms.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson (e.g., Lin Jian) repeatedly stated that China “opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law” and urged the U.S. to “stop willfully slapping sanctions and using long-arm jurisdiction.” China pledged to “firmly defend the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.”

A very busy day on the podcast front. I started the day with Judge Napolitano at 9 am:

I connected with Nima at 10 am:

Colonel Wilkerson and I were interviewed by Danny Haiphong at 2 pm:

I spoke with Kyle Anzalone at 4:45 pm:

And I finished off the day with another chat with Mario, who is in Dubai:

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